EMERGENCE OF NARENDRA MODI FOR PRIME MINISTERSHIP IS THREAT TO INDIA's SECULAR FABRIC ?

        Before I start writing on this ticklish issue, I think it proper to just refer the PREAMBLE OF THE CONSTITUTION, which says, " We , The People of India, having solemnly resolved to constitute India into a "Sovereign Socialist Secular Democratic Republic and to secure to all its citizens: Justice.........................

         Is the emergence of the Hindu Right Leader and the Chief Minister of Gujarat Narendra Damodar Das Bhai as prime ministerial candidate of the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP), a threat to the secular fabric of India?  Much debate and discussions are taking place nationally and internationally over the issue. I am just putting the facts straight about the way, Narendra Modi is being projected as prime ministerial candidate of India, just seven months away of the Lok Sabha elections in 2014 by the depleted National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by BJP as well as Modi's aggressive and militant postures in his speeches and interviews on the eve of elections. Narendra Modi, a controversial figure, represents an uncompromising stand of the BJP's Hindu Nationalist ideology.

         To begin with only because of such militant approach of Modi, various coalition partners, particularly JD(U)), led by Bihar's Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has withdrawn as coalition partners of the NDA. Secondly, Modi, who is described as "HINDU HRIDYA SMARAT",, is said to be one of the most divisive politician in India's history. He is an unapologetic Hindu chauvinist, who has been accused of mass murder of Muslims in 2002 communal riot in Gujarat during his chief minister ship of the state. Modi is known for dividing the society on communal and  religious  lines. Thirdly , with his projection as prime ministerial nominee by the BJP and its father organisation-Rashtriya Swamsevak Sangh (RSS), the entire country has been surcharged with communal  tension. Recent Hindu-Muslim riots, killing over 48 persons and injuring score of persons as well as 42,000 people were displaced as their villages were raided by rioters  is biggest examples of communal divide with the arrival of  Amit Sah in Uttar Pradesh as BJP general Secretary In charge of UP ,  the close protege of  Modi and accused in several criminal cases, registered by the CBI against him In Gujarat . And also Babri Masjid demolition like misdeeds, committed by the BJP supporters led by senior BJP leader Lal Krishna Advani in 1980, the Hindu Right Organisations including Vishwa Hindu Parishad , trying to make "chaurasi Kosi parikarma" in and around Ayodhaya to press for construction of "Ram Temple" on the disputed sites of masjid. Such move definitely created surcharged atmosphere in the entire Uttar Pradesh. Not only that, over a dozen states of central and western  India have come under the grip of communal tension. And the union home minister has issued alert to all states of the Indian union about the possibility of communal clashes in their respective zones,

        There are many more factors about Modi's decisive politics  Although Modi, who initiated anti-Muslim tirade in Gujarat initially, has tried to replace them with message of development based on a record in Gujarat that even worse critics acknowledge is impressive ! But critics do not lag behind that Modi and his party have been benefited from past violence between Hindus and Muslims in Gujarat. It must be mentioned here that India is vast and populous country  in the globe and during election campaign in different parts of the country, the campaigns  result into violent because of hate speeches by certain fundamentalist leaders. Under the circumstances, the projection of Narendra Modi, who is considered fiery Hiundutava orator mix with anti-Muslim slurs, the forthcoming Lok Sabha election may be one of the deadliest election in the decades!

      According to the report; Hindus have 83 percent voters while Muslims have 13 percent and remaining four percents are other minority communities.Home ministry report has said that there  had been already 451 cases of sectarian violence this year, surpassing last year's total of 410. The union home ministry has warned that violence was likely to intensify as election approaches. During his speeches in the meetings in different parts of the country, Modi appears to be darling of youths, making the situation more hot up and surcharged .Modi never apologised for the 2002 riots, killing over two thousands Muslims  in Gujarat, now he has shifted his focus recently to development and in the process, Modi ha become chums of business classes  including corporates and multi-nationals. A recent report in the New York Times has quoted Talveen Singh, an author and commentator, in which she has made futile attempt to  compare Modi with the  first Prime minister of India Pundit Jawahar Lal Nehru and has said, " The reason why Modi needs a chance to lead is that he is the first politician since Nehru, who had articulated a clear economic vision"

        . Selecting of Narendra Modi as prime ministerial nominee, the BJP has also thought to implement its old Hindutva agenda vigorously as Modi represents uncompromising Hindu nationalist. But there are factors, which are troubling the BJP also like deepening of sectarian divisions. India is a home of world's second largest Muslim population Modi , who has questionable character during 2002 Gujarat riots,, is accused of doing nothing while Gujarat burned and at worst of having helped to orchestrate the violence. Modi is also known for his arrogance, authoritarian and dictatorial style. In a recent interview to Reuter, Modi did say "I am Hindu nationalist" not not Indian nationalist. Such version clearly reflects that Modi  has more love for Hindu India than as a nationalist of secular India , as enunciated .Can it be not be described a slur on the Preamble of the Indian Constitution by Modi ? Not only that when asked about the riots in Gujarat resulting into killings of hundreds of Muslims, Modi replied in strange connotation, apparently showing his deep-rooted aversion with Muslims. Modi told the interviewer of Reuter that his feelings of pain for the tragedy were similar to how he would feel if a puppy had been run over by a car in which he was merely a passenger. Shockingly in another interview to the Wall Street Journal last year Modi had strange justification over prevalent malnutrition in Gujarat. Modi  appeared out of his depth when he diagnosed his state's high malnutrition rates as being a result of the vegetarian diet and the state middle class being" beauty conscious than health conscious".

          Narendra Modi cannot be Atal Behari Vajpayee, whose years as prime minister from 1998 to 2004 were largely characterised by a consensual approach to governing. An opinion piece  in the New York Times, written by Krishan Pratap Singh has written, " Vajpayee was like Ronald Regan: a true  believer in the conservative cause, who packaged his ideological stridency into a narrative that depicted the BJP as a responsible party of governance, palatable to its core voters while allaying the fears of disparate coalition allies. But once Vajpayee left the scene, The BJP steadily drifted toward the far right.The promise of a Modi victory could prove to be mirage. Elections are still decided in rural India, where he is yet to give fully tested. Only L K Advani, the octogenarian -founder of the BJP and the Modi's mentor-turned rival, stands in his path ti leading the party. But Advani's failure as prime minister candidate in the 2009 elections, and the groundswells of rank-and-file support for Modi, may undermine his quest. YEt even if Modi is victorious, he would most likely lead an unwieldy coalition government involving decision making by consultation and consensus, a balancing act that is not his strong suit. With Indians begging for good governance, the BJP must decided whether to choose Modi's ideological path or to recalibrate to Vajpayee-like inclusiveness. On that question hinges   the outcome of elections-and the future of India But Modi's message may well prove difficult to resist: From snake charmers, we are now a nation of mouse charmers. Our youngsters are shaping the world with the click of a mouse."

       The son of a tea stall owner, Narendra Modi, 62, has spent most of his life in politics, joining the right-wing Hindu-nationalist Sangh Parivar organisation early on rising through its ranks by displaying impressive organising ablities. He moved to BJP in 1987 and was appointed chief minister of Gujsrat as a midterm replcement in 2001 without ever having fought an election. Like Gandhi-Nehru Gandhi family , Narendra Modi has no such tags. Apart from that , Modi had never been found in the company of his family members including his mother and deserted wife and brothers like Nehru-Gandhi family members , who are seen hobnobbing with each other in politics and other affairs in life. Modi is different metal  and is self-made successful politician so far.Of course he brought drastic change in the development pattern in Gujarat. His focus on pro-investment policies, cutting red tape, extensive infrastructure development, while using his personal charm to woo foreign and domestic investments, has been marked contrast to most other state governments.

        Today Narendra Modi has connected himself with the people of India, particularly youths and middle  classes especially in towns and cities. Where ever one goes, he finds one name  on every body's lip that is Narendra Modi !Huge crowds turn up to listen his speeches. Modi has succeeded in capturing cyber spaces and social media networks are full with Modi's supporters. Like V P Singh, who was once described  "Raja nahi fakir hai; desh kaa taqdir d hai." while dethroning the then prime minister Rajiv Gandhi from power, Modi is also gravitating during election like him (V P Singh). But V P Singh, being a Jan Morcha chief that time, had stamina to unite all opposition to support the then Janata party , keeping their distinct identity. But following the path of V P Singh is different. VP had fought election on corruption plank that time. But Modi, although identifying with VP in removing the present UPA government on corruption plank like him (V P Singh), but Modi lacks acumen in uniting anti-congress parties on one front. Modi had of his own started claiming that BJP will win 272 plus seats in the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections. Modi must take one thing in his mind that without identifying anti-congress parties, will not be possible to garner such huge seats. Different pats of India have different characteristics. Southern  and Eastern parts of the country invariably are not very enthusiastic with Modi  or with BJP like earlier Lok Sabha poll . Narendra Modi's magic may move in central, northers and western India. The central and northern India, known as "cow belt" may have ground swelling support for Modi and BJP but there are many road blocks in these areas also like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh where regional straps like Nitish Kumar, Laloo Prasad Yadav, Ram Bilas Paswan (Bihar) and Mulayam Singh of Uttar Pradesh have tremendous support bases.

      Apart from that Muslims, who are fearful of Narendra Modi and BJP, are likely to vote in the next election in tactical manner throughout the country. Muslims are expected to vote throughout the country this time on the perception that parties' candidates, most suitable to defeat Narendra Modiu's candidates will get entire support of Muslims in the next elections as situation prevails today ! When one compares victory of NDA led by BJP in previous elections on the basis of strong alliance partners, the victory in the forthcoming election of Lok Sabha by Modi all alone will be a difficult task. Being desperate over such ticklish issues, Taking into account such political scenario , the desperate Narendra Modi , who was initially wanted to contest elections of all alone, and his BJP have started approaching Chandra Babu's TDP as well as Babulal Marandi's Jharkhand Vikas Party in Jharkhand and expelled BJP leader Yedurappa in Karnataka to bring them in NDA alliance -fold. The BJP leadership has also recently appealed to former leaders of the party, who have resigned or expelled  to rejoin the BJP.l Making the situation clear the gradual growing of the BJP in election and forming union governments under the leadership of Vajpayee  ,Veteran journalist Vidya Subrahmaniam, in her opinion piece in the Hindu,under headline "The BJP's ak;la chalo challenge" has written, " In 2013, the RSS is not just back, it has decreed and ensured that Modi's elevation takes place. This, itself is hard to reconcile with the image that is being crafted for Modi. His national projection is of modern and aspirational leader but he seems ti exist at the pleasure of a mentor seen as a polar opposite to these ideas. .....the man, who changed the things around for  the BJP was none other than L K advani through his Ayodhya's yatra and demolition of Babri Masjid till 1996 and subsequent Lok Sabha elections......and had taken back seat to keep alliance partners intact and paved way for middle-roader Vajpayee.........." and BJP succeeded in keeping NDA intact. Today NDA led by BJP is torn, having only two allies-the Shiv Sena and Akali Dal, both in ideological sync with the party..........the calculation obviously is that Modi's early projection will trigger an infectious voting frenzy, enabling him to single-handedly pull off a BJP victory. If this happens Narendra Miodi will be the first since V P singh to set off a personality-induced wave. But for all the adulation he commanded, Singh was nothing without the political support he got------his own Janata Dal was formed by merging the Jan Morcha with the Janata party and two factions of the Lok Dal------formed National Front........even supported by the BJP and left parties. So Singh's  illusory single handed victory was a product in fact of support at every stage from a conglomerate of non-Congress parties ...The truth is that there is no unified national vote today and for all the blusters of the RSS, the BJP will need allies and will seek allies.....seven months before the big fight, and notwithstanding the UPA's down-in-the-pit status, the political congregation is around the Congress alliance rather than the BJP alliance. If Modi's manages to win the election by himself or even by winning over new allies, he will have beaten the odds and rewritten India';s political history."

     What ever the outcome of the next Lok Sabha elections, the scenario in the country is presently vitiated by communal frenzies being encouraged by the Hindu Right organisations , led by Narendra Damodar Das Bhai to become prime minister of India  by any means?

PLUNDERING OF NATURE BOUND TO HAVE ADVERSE EFFECT IN THE GLOBE !

             

             AMID THE THREAT to the fate of the Planet  hangs in balance because of recurring changes in  'climate and weather' and also global warming as well as the over population on the earth  in over hundreds of  years, based on  the several researches by the scientists throughout the world,, a  new set of expert opinion has emerged, ruling out misunderstanding of the ecology of  human system and any threat to the,  Planet ! In a 'opinion essay', recently published in the New York Times, its author Erle C Ellis, an associate professor of Geography and Environmental Systems at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County and a visiting associate professor at Harvard's Graduate School of Design, has written that many scientists believe that by transforming the earth's natural landscapes, "we are undermining the very life support system that sustain us." Like Bacteria in a petri dish, "our  exploding numbers are reaching the limits of a finite Planet with dire consequences". Disasters looms as human exceed the earth's carrying capacity.clearly, this could not be sustainable."This is non-sense. Even today,  I hear some of my scientist colleagues repeat these and similar claims---often unchallenged. And once , I too believed them. Yet these claims demonstrate a profound misunderstanding of ecology of human systems. The conditions that sustain huminity are not natural  and never had been. Since prehistory, human population have used technologies and engineered eco-systems to sustain populations well beyond the capabilities of unaltered "natural" ecosystems." Although I am not so qualified on such arguements, I have written an essay "Threat to Life on the Earth vis-a-vis the Earth is Itself Threatened" on July 06, deliberating the threat aspects , based on well researched subjects on the topics  on www.kksingh1.blogspot.com

           On the other hand,.Book Review from the London Review of Books, by Thomas Jones, under the headline, " How can we live with it ?" has different opinion on the topic ! Jones has quoted a boy,telling his family members that "global warming is a load of codswallop", trying to explain the difference between climate and weather.."Global warming, he insisted,is load of codswallop" A "Nature Geoscience, published a paper showing summer melting on the Antarctic Peninsula at a level unprecedented over the past thousand years.The codswallop brigade say that even if the climate is changing, it is not our fault. 'We human beings, Boring Johnson wrote, in the Telegraph in January, 'have become so blind with conceit and self-love that we genuinely believe that fate of the planet is in our hands'. On the one hand, then, the modest mayor of London. On the other, a former head of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (as paraphrased by Brian Stone ):Only Newton's laws of motion may enjoy a wider scientific consensus than a human-enhanced greenhouse effect' effect. There is no consensus, however, either scientific or political, about the best ways to respond to the problem; in part because so many possible avenues of research are being explored, and it is still too early to say which, if any, have a reasonable chance of leading us out of the woods (or rather the desert or the flood plains).'

          According to Jones; the green house concept, was first visualized by Joseph Fourier in 1814 and was proved experimentally by John Tyndall in 1859. In the 19th century it could be seebn as unambiguously a good thing: if carbon-dioxide and other trace gases did not trap heat in the atmosphere, the earth would not be warm enough to support life as we know it. But there is now far more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere than there has been at any point in the last 800,000 years (we know thus because researchers have analysed air bubbles trapped in the ice in Green;land and Antartica; the deeper you go, the older the bubbles). The concentration has increased from nearly 320 parts per million ( high but not unprecedented) in 1960 to more than 390 ppm today, 30  percent higher than any previous peak, largely as a result of human activityNot even the most fervent climate change denier can argue with the fact that burning carbon dioxide levels were 280 ppm. Since 1850, more than 360 billion tonnes of fossil fuels have gone up in smoke. Average global temperatures have risen accordingly, for the last quarter century pretty much in line with the predictions made by the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change  in its first assessment report in 1990. After every year since 1988, when the IPCC was established, has been  the hottest ever recorded. The most opitimistic projections, which governments are nominally committed to (that is to say, the signatories of the Copenhaagen Accord in 2009 greed it would be nice) is that average global temperature will rise no more than 2oC by the end of the century. Sea level has six cm since 1990.The IPCC;s fourth assessment report-2007- projected that it would rise between 18 and 59cc by 2100.

        More over, the aim of the United Nations Frame work Convention on Climate Change, negotiated at the the Earth Summit In Rio de Janeiro in 1992, had decided to stabilize greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Even after the elapse of 20 , nothing tangible has come out. And the emission of carbondioxide in huge scale is going on , endangering the man-kind. Of the world;s eight biggest national emitters of carbondioxide, which between them account for more than 66 percent of global emissions, only Germany (2.4 pc) has agreed to legally binding reduction in the second commitment period (2013-20),.Canada (1.7 pc ) has withdrawn from the [rotocol; the United States (16 pc) never ratified it; China (29pc), India 5.9pc); Russia (5.4 percent), Japan (3.7pc) and South Korea (1.8pc) are still signatories but do not have binding target. China, which is generating energy through coal firepower stations and burn much of the black stuff as the rest of the world put together, is doing such things to manufacture goods for export to the west. Thus China is pumping as much carbon dioxide into atmosphere as it was 30 yeers ago.There is thinking that if China stop burning coal, everything will be OK. China, however, is trying to switch into renewable energy (hydroelectric, solar, wind, geothermal ) as well as setting up an emission trading scheme like the one the EU had introduced in 2005.

        All these haphazard emissoon of carbondioxide are making the life miserably of people throughout the globe and the time is not so far off when the entire globe will be perished under toxic exercises; researchers have predicted. strange climate change and atmosphere have developed.. Devastating heatwave that swept Europe ten years ago when temperature of 100oF was recorded for the first time ever in UK,are expected throughout the globe and similarly cold -like situation will prevail in the globe. In the EU alone over 70000 citizens of 12 countries died from heat wave in the summer of 2003. Similar heat wave had been recorded in different countries of the globe and over two lakh people die every year in different countries of the world.LBR suggests that the outlook may not be so bad for American and British cities. But the news that there are ways for the global north and west to adapt and to tolerate global warming is hardly reassuring for, say, the 12 million residents of Dhaka, which face a much greater risk of flofding and has far less money to spend on defences. A paper published in Nastural Hazards last year comparing the vulnerablity of flodding nine cities found-unsurprisingly, but is is useful to have quantified-that Shanghai, Dhaka and Calcutta, now Kolkata were far more vulnerable than Rotterdam, Marseille and Osaka. The director of the Research Institute of Global Climate and Ecology at the Russian Academy of Science, has said that "it would be cheaper to resettle Bangaladeshis threatened by sea -level rise than to adhere to the kyoto protocol-and cheaper still to do neither. A recent report of UNICEF has also given warning signal about the impact of vulnerable climate change effect on children of the globe. Despite discussions in the Kyoto conclave on global changes and warming etc and subsequent commitments, global emissions are enormously higher than they were in 1990 and the climate change policy had achieved nothing

            While the entire globe is endangered with such alarming situation, Ellis is optimistic and says that earth would bear the burden of all these evil things in natural manner. He says, in his opinon piece in the New York Times, " The evidence from archaeology is clear. Our predecessors in the genus Homo used social hunting strategies and tools of stone and fire ti extract more sustenance from landscapes than would otherwise be possible. And of course,, Homo sapines went much  further, learning poor generations , once their preferred big games became rare or extinct, to make use of a far broader spectrum of species. They did this by extracting more nutrients from these species by cooking and grinding them by propgating the most useful species and by burning woodlands to enhance hunting and forging success. Even before the last ice age had ended, thousands years before agriculture, hunter-gatherer societies were well established across earth and depended increasingly on sophisticated technological strategies to sustain growing populations in landscapes long ago transformed by their ancestors. THe planet's carrying capacity for pre-historic human hunter-gatherers was probably no more that 100 million, But without their Paleolithic technologies and ways of life, the number would be far less-perhaps a few tens of millions. The rise of agriculture enabled even greater population growth requiring even more intensive land-use practices to gain more sustenance from the same old land. At their preak, those agriculture systems might have sustained as many as three billion people in poverty on near vegetarian diets.".

         Ellis, however, admits, and says, " there is no environmental reasons for people to go hungry now or in future. There is no need to use any more land to sustain huminity-increasing land productivity using existing  technologies can boost global supplies and even leave more land for nature-a goal that is both more popular and more possible than ever"

            Thus,  I feel strongly, that while the nature with the man-kind in sustaining all the menaces, the problem created by ambitious countries to play cruel jokes with nature, is certainly wipe out the globe and its people.

REFERENCES:-  New YORK TIMES ,London Book Review's  Books-namely Buy the Carbon Crunch: How We are Getting climate Change Wrong and How to Fix It, by Dieter Helm, BUY Earth Masters: The Dawn of the Age of Climate Engineering by Clive Hamilton, Buy the City and the Coming Climate:Climate Change in the Places We Live by Brian Stone.

USA, IN PURSUIT OF WORLD HEGEMONY, TRAPPING INDIA !

      THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, in its pursuits, of fulfilling the dream of global hegemony, since the days, of President Roosevelt,has an unending story. A recent book-"Strategic Vision::America and the Crisis of Global Power"-, written by Zbigniew Brazezinski , published by Basic Books, has highlighted many interesting points of growing ambitions of the USA. The book is thought provoking.In the process of of its hegemony, America is browbeating other super powers like Russia , China and many of even European countries and is aiming to strengthening its position by "capturing more slots in Asia"  through its own"narrow self-interest". And India, which is developing fast in Asia, has become new target of USA to bring it in its fold ! In my opinion recent closeness of India government of Manmohan Singh to USA in several aspects is point to be noted ! Just I am subscribing below certain portion of the Brazezinski's book to substantiate my apprehension about India, being falling in the trap of USA !

         Brazezinski has written in the book about India, " Contemporary India is a complicated mixture of democratic self-governance, massive social injustices, economic dynamism and wide-spread political corruption. As a result, its political emergence as a force in the world affairs has lagged behind China. India was prominent in sharing leadership of the so called non-alingned nations, a collection of neutral but politically wavering states including Cuba and Yugoslavia, all allegedly opposed to the Cold War. Its brief military collision with China in 1962, which ended in India's defeat, was only practically redeemed by its military successes in the two wars with Pakistan in 1965  and 1971. By and large, the prevailing view of India up til relatively recently has been one of a country with strong moralistic opinions about world affairs but without commensurate influence.............."

        The book further adds, "..... India's political elite is motivated by an ambitious strategic vision focused on securing greater global influence and a conviction of its regional primacy. An  the gradual improvement in U.S-Indian relations during the first decade of the twenty-first century has further  enhanced India's global stature and gratified its ambitions. However, its simmering conflict with Pakistan, which includes a proxy contest with it for greater influence in Afghanistan, remains a serious diversion from its larger geopolitical aspirations. Therefor-the view held by its foreign policy elite- that India is not only rival to China but also already one of the world's super power lacks sober realism......."

          Brzezinski has also sharply commented on the domestic set-up as well as media;s hysterics on China ! He writes, ".......The Indian political system has yet to prove that it can function as the 'world's largest democracy'........That test will take place when its population becomes truly politically awakened and engaged. Given the country's very high-level of public illiteracy as well as the connection between privilege and wealth at the top of political establishment, India's current 'democratic' process is rather reminiscent of the British aristocratic 'democracy', prior to the appearance of trade unions, in the second half of the nineteenth century. The operational viability of the existing system will be truly tested when the heterogeneous public at large becomes both politically conscious and assertive. Ethnic, religious, and linguistic differences could then threaten India's internal cohesion.......In that potentially conflicted setting, the stability of Asia will depend in part on how America responds to two overlapping regional triangles centred around........."

         The author further writes in the book, " On India's side, the existing tensions and reciprocal national animosities are fuelled by the relatively inhibited hostility towards China expressed in India's uncensored media and in India's strategic discussions. Invariably, China is presented in them as a threat, most often territorial in nature and India's publications frequently make references in China's 1962 occupation by force of disputed borderline territories. China;s efforts to establish an economic and political presence in Myanmar and in Pakistan's Indian Ocean ports are presented to the public as strategic design to encircle India. The Chinese mass media, under official control, are more restrained in their pronouncements but patronise India as a not-so-serious rival, further inflaming negative Indian sentiments......'

          Brzezinski  further writes in the book, :" To a considerable extent, such Chinese feelings of aloofness towards India are derived from China's superior societal performance. Its GNP is considerably larger that India's and its population is considerably more literate as well as ethnically and linguistically more homogeneous. In any case, both sides are the strategic captives of their subjective feelings and of their geopolitical context. The Indians envy the Chinese economic and infraststructural transformation. The Chinese are contemptuous of India's relative backwardness (on the social level most dramatically illustrated by asymmetrical level of literacy of their respective populations) and lack of discipline. The Indians fear Chinese-Pakistani collusion, the Chinese feel vulnerable to India's potential capacity to interfere with Chinese access through the Indian Ocean to the Middle East and Africa.........

          "......America's role  in this rivalry should be cautious and detached. A prudent U S policy, especially in regard to an alliance with India, should not, however, be interpreted as indifference to India's potential role as an alternative to China's authoritarian political model......The unwise U S decision of 2011 to sell advanced weaponry to India, in contrast to the ongoing embargo on arms sale to China, while also enhancing India's nuclear programmes is already earning the United States the hostility of the Chinese by conveying the impression that America sees China as its enemy even before China itself had decided to be America's enemy."

           Apart from Asia, particularly India, USA has similar approaches towards other nations of the world, looking China , Russia and many other many countries Middle East and Arab world, dangerous potentials and not allowing the global hegemony of America ! Just I have mentioned the references in the book about India, falling in the grips of imperialist USA and it is upto people of India to decide !

SITUATION ALARMING IN JAMMU AND KASHMIR: MILITANCY GROWING PUTTING INDIAN GOVERNMENT ON TENTERHOOKS

             Kashmir remains apple of discord ! After a long spell of normalcy on security front in Jammu and Kashmir, militants have again pervaded the Kashmir valley, putting Indian government on tenterhooks. Kashmir, which was split controversially between India and Pakistan after the countries gained their independence from the Great Britain in 1947, are again in the news with violence and terror activities usually on India side.Recently seven towns in the Indian side were under indefinite curfew following sporadic clashes between local Hindus and Muslims. Apart from that Pakistan is accused of sending commandos to kill five of its soldiers stationed on the line of control, the defecto border dividing the two parts of Kashmir. Violence in Kashmir, launched by Pakistani army and its "jehadis", have become again matter of concern for the Indian authorities. Overall level of violence are lower side now in Kashmir than at any time since an insurgency that pitted groups of young Muslim Kashmirs enrolled in Islamists groups and later extremists from Pakistan too, against Indian security forces first flared more than two decades ago. In totality more than 50,000 militants, soldiers, police and civilians had reportedly been killed in the fighting in India's only Muslim-dominated state, Human rights abuses , perpetuated by all sides,had become order of the days At its height in 2001, 4,500 deaths were recorded, according to the Institute  for Conflict Management, a Delhi-based think -tank. Lass year only, 117 people were killed.

           Now, a new wave of violence have suddenly spurt. Notably matter of main  concern is that in this new wave of violence, young and educated separatist militants have surfaced in villages, bordering with "Occupied Kashmir" by Pakistan. Cluster of traditional homes and mosques amid green fields and woods in a fold of the dry hills in the south of the valley have become centre of activities by these elements. Experts on Kashmir have pointed out that these violent activities by militants are result of backlash after the hanging of Mohammad Afzal Guru, who had been sentenced to death in the Parliament attack case, as well as old scars  on the wounds of Kashmiris have started  etching again ! Capital punishment to Afzal Guru of valley has also been condemned throughout Kashmir as Guru was not present to the site and time of Parliament attack. He was later arrested from Kashmir and made an accused in the case as a conspirator. The judgement giving death sentence to Afzal had drawn national and international criticism on the judicial system of India. Only criminal conspiracy and not being part of the crime cannot draw such harsh punishments, legal experts had commented.


                    "Fidayeen" (suicide ) attacks on security forces at several places, especially  in Srinagar, and encounters between militants and security forces have become routine affairs in Jammu and Kashmir ! Here , again, according to annual union home ministry report, there was marked decline in the number of terrorists activities and security forces causalities, compared with previous year. " The year 2011 witnessed a 30 percent decrease in the number of terrorist  incidents and 34 percent and 52 percent respectively decrease in civilian and security forces respectively compared with the year 2010.", the report said and added. ,"the level of infiltration from across the borders and the resultant terrorist activities in the valley of Kashmir showed a significant decline. The incident of terrorist violence declined from708 in 2008, 499 in 2009 and 488 in 2010 to 340 in 2011. The number of security forces killed declined from 75 in 2008, 79 in 2009 and 69 in 2010 to 33 in 2011. The number of civilians killed also declined from 91 in 2008, 71 in 2009 and 47 in 2010 to 31 in 2011. The number of terrorists killed declined from 239 in 2009 and 232 in 2010 to 100 in 2011; showing the effects of better domination of the Line of Control a d the resultantly lower infiltration." All these factors have brought changes in ground level, paving the way for the arrival of record number of  1.4 million tourists in 2012.

               LIFE IS LIVING HELL:-Than why this spurt in terror activities ?  Perhaps because of new wave of active participation of well-educated, even professionally qualified, men in the recent terror attacks. This apart scars of old wounds of the atrocity and rape in the remote villages of Kunan and Pashpora in  Kupwara district of north Kashmir on the night of February 23 , 1991 by Indian security forces have also riminiscinced the people of Kashmir. The incident, in brief, was that soldiers of Indian Army , at around 11 pm raided the village and threatened to kill all villagers while hunting the terrorists. All men were told to come out and soldiers barged into the houses and attacked the women, molesting, raping them.. Even today memories of women did not go away. Many of them became hysterectomies. Wounds have healed but scars are very much there. Enquiry after   enquiry held. The then district magistrate of Kupwara S M Yasin, had visited the village and recorded the report with remarks that , " the armed forces behaved like violent beasts." The fact-finding team led by the then Chief Justice Mufti Bahauddin Farooqi, interviewed 53 women who had been allegedly raped and tried to determine why a police investigation into the incident had never taken place. Farpooqi had reportedly commented at that time ,  he had " never seen such a case in  which normal investigative procedures were ignored as they were in this one,." There were furore over the issue but nothing tangible came out.Life is living hell for them  even today !

             Another factors, responsible for sudden spurt in the terror activities are continuance of the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA). The union government had enacted the Act when the entire Jammu and Kashmir was passing through critical phase of terror activities. The Act gives blatant power to security forces to cover the measures to filter terrorists by acting through their own modus-operandi.. The Act is being misutilised by Armed forces and it has become a centre of criticism where ever the Act is implemented, particularly in the eastern states also. The Chief Minister of Jammu and Kashmir has also pleaded for revoking the Act. Security officials in the disputed province exaggerate the threat from extremism to justify wide ranging powers of arrest and detention-and a broad measures of immunity from prosecution for human right abuses-granted earlier in the the conflict..Large number of arrests have been taken place in Kashmir in recent months, creating stir in the state. Kashmiris  are scared of arrest and tortures not deaths ! Meantime, educated youths are  being lured and encouraged by Pakistan based Lashkar-e-Taiba and many other terror organisations including Pakistan government's ISI. Another factor is declining official support for the extremists in Indian Kashmir from Pakistan over the past decade. Another one is growing disparity between the economies of the two neighbours, which have fought three wars over the state. Indian growth has undermined the argument for accession to Pakistan in Kashmir-though much rhetoric support for independence remains-and sapped enthusiasm for any return to a hugely disruptive violent struggles. Nawaz Shariff, who was elected in landslide victory in May, is keeping stony silence over terror activities added and abetted by Pakistan's terror organisations and Pak military wing ISI !

             The situation has come to such a pass that Indian and Pakistan troops are indulging in unprovoked firings at each other on wire fencing borders, particularly in Kashmir. Violations of ceasefire have become order of the day by Pakistani army. Border is tense. The insurgency is supported by Pakistan began in Indian-administered Kashmir, seeking independence from Indian rule. Villagers on Indian side of border in Kashmir are compelled to hide in army's abandoned bunkers.. Most of these bunkers were destroyed in 2005 earthquake.. Echoes of despair fill the bordering villages in Kashmir. An escalating  war of words between India and Pakistan over cross border attacks in Kashmir has practically tarnished hopes that the newly elected government in Islamabad will succeed in reviving peace talks between the feuding neighbours. Accusation and claims  and counter claims over border dispute in Kashmir are aggravating the situation gradually.

                Families of militants or terrorists in Kashmir blame security forces for pushing their wards to terrorism or militancy  through constant harassment. Interestingly, a new trend has come to fore about the active participation of well-educated, even professionally qualified, men in the recent terror attacks.  A recent article in Frontline fortnightly says '"the profiles of militant killed in recent encounters with security forces are reason for worry. For instance, Saifullah Ahangar had a diploma in civil engineering; Musiullah Khan was a mechanical engineer; Sajad Yousuf Mir had an MA in Islamic Studies) he had not completed his MCA); Moar Ahsan had an M.Sc. Physics; and Hilal Ahmad, rather was a mufti (a scholar in Islamic Law) from Deoband. There are many examples that recent encounters have killed were not from less-educated sections of society. And these trends are continuing." Kashmir experts are of the opinion that in Kashmir educated youths , adopting extremism or terrorism, did not believe or tempt in monetary considerations, rather they say Islam is the biggest motivating forces for them to take up arms. They quote from Koran and Hadith (sayings of Prophet Muhammad) and one can see large number of people in Kashmir listening  them on video with rapt attention. The Political scientist Gull Mohammad Wani, who heads the Institute of Kashmir Studies at Kashmir university, believes that stifling political environment in mainly responsible for this. For his "it is an alarming situation and I think repressive measures play a role in this as the place is devoid of accountability, a responsive administration and a regime of justice."

           Indian government must initiate reopening dialogue with these elements taking into confidence the Jammu and Kashmir government to neutralise the ugly signs of separatism.Indian government must punish the personnel of army for indulging in rapes and perpetuating other kind of atrocities on Kashmiris taking the help of hated AFSPA !

REFERENCES: INDIA GOVT WEBSITES OF DIFFERENT DEPARTMENTS AND INDIAN ARMY, FRONT LINE FORTNIGHTLY, THE GUARDIAN, THE NEW YORK TIMES, WASHINGTON POST .

WAR OF BOOKS AND ESSAYS ON INDIA'S FAILING ECONOMY-AMARTYA AND BHAGWATI HAVE DIFFERENT OPINIONS !

             

           Down-turn in Indian economy is not only  a subject of animated discussions but a war of books as well as essays in prominent  Indian and international newspapers and  journals  by eminent authors and analysts has broken  out in mis-judging  or judging in correct perspectives about Indian economy ! I am not qualified to assess and give expert opinions about the down-turn of the Indian economy and fall of rupee. in comparison to US dollar but simply analysing the facts, coming out from the books and essays, which , one section blames,global  turbulence or mishandling of the economy by the Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh while another  section finds fault -line in liberalisation policy in the vast India where over 70 percent of population are below the poverty line and hanker for food, health and education !  I feel the Indian economy is revolving around "jholwallas" in the National Advisory Council (NAC) and "Davoswallahs" in the enlightened power circuit of capitalists, industrialists, multi-nationals, corporates, landlords etc and our economy will improve or not , it all depends how we handle the present crisis situation. Instead of massive welfare measures, the successive rulers since independence are wrongly diagnosing the things and they have brought 'unique and strange measures' for giving free hands to industrialists, capitalists, multi-nationals, corporates etc in the say of so called  improving  the Indian economy and plight of people in the country. In the process authors and essayists are harping on different models like Kerala model,Gujarat model, Bihar model,  inclusive growth and exclusive growth, blame-game against each others etc. One fact is very much clear since the rise in GDP and so called claims of successive ruler that Indian economy is growing and India will be one of the biggest economic power in the globe by 2020-poverty has increased and rich have become richest and there appears hey -day for making maximum money among vested interests including political classes and poor in rural areas, who constitute largest chunk of population are facing agonising moment !

          At least over half a dozen books-authored by prominent economists including  Nobel laureate Amartya Sen and his co-author Jean Dreze ( An Uncertain Glory:India and its Contradictions-Penguin Books-London), Jagdish Bhagwati and his co-author Arvind Panagariya (India's Tryst with Destiny-Harper Collins), another economist of the fame N K Singh, IAS retired and Rajya Sabha member of JD(U) (The New Bihar-Rekindling Governance and Development ), another edited book by Akhil Gupta and K Sivaramakrishnan-The State in India after Liberalisation-Interdisciplinary Perspectives; and Globalisation, International Law and Human Rights, jointly edited by Jeffery F.Addicott, Md. Jahid Hossain Bhuiyan and Tareq M R Chaudhary as well as many essays and topics have thrown mixed views about Indian economy and instead of throwing lights to bail out India from economic morass, they have cited their views for their upmanship except a few !

           In one of the Opinion Piece in the Times of India, senior journalist Vinod Mehta has thrown a new debate on welfare measures including Right to Education, RT Act, Food security bill, Land Acquisition Bill, MGNREGA etc through the initiative of AICC president Sonia Gandhi by exercising ground work in National Advisory Committee for poor and middle classes persons and how these measures will percolate to lower -level people of the country?! Mehta writes, " Her critics, starting from Jagdiush Bhagwati (will the Nobel Committee quickly give him the prize Amartya Sen got so that he can resume normal work?) and his domestic followers, want us to believe that the mismanagement of Team Manmohan is directly attributable  to the lady in 10, Janpath. She pulls the strings to promote her crazy schemes and the PM capitulates leaving behind all the good economics he learnt at Ox bridge". (MY BLOG ESSAYS-BAD SHAPE OF INDIAN ECONOMY...........August 27, 2013, AMARTYA -BHAGWATI SPAT VIS-A-VIS INDIAN ECONOMY.........AUGUST 15, 2013)

          :The Books, written by Amartya Sen and his co-author and Jagdish Bhagwati and his co-author  have different signals about Indian economy. While  Bhagwati's book has stressed for "market" instead of "public action" in his book, Amartya Sen and his co-authrors' book , in lucid writings and public reasoning, have advanced the reasons for pain on seeing the pathetic pictures of human condition in India that has emerged gradually.Both Sen and Dreze do not denigrate the poor with contempt. They have humane approach ! Bhagawati -Panagariya believes on free-market concept and have praised the Gujarat model of growth, that has brought wide ranging progress. Both of them have discussed the pros and cons of Kerala Model and Gujarat model in totality. There are vast differences between the two models-while Kerala model stresses for redistributive and stare-driven development and Gujarat model mainly concentrates on growth and and private-entrepreneurship-drive development. Bhagwati and his co-author have mainly concentrated on lambasting Kerala model and praising Gujarat model without much thoughts over history and geography of both the states. A reviewers of the book R Ram Kumar in Frontline says, " a major section in the book is devoted to arguing that Kerala's developmental achievements are due neither to redistributive policies nor to state intervention. In a rather heroic effort to rewrite history, Bhagawati and Paniagariya argue that Kerala's achievements are due, primarily, to "economic growth."

                    Both Bhagwati and Panagariya, while concentrating on Kerala and Gujarat, have not threw light on overall economic situation in India-but both of them have justified the Gujarat model for shaping the economy of the entire country. There are many flaws about the truths in the development of Kerala in the book.Both of them have mainly concentrated on discrediting the historic process of as a change as "left wing populist fallacy" I do not want to tell more about well-known economist Bhagwati, who appears frustrated, mainly because that once his bosom economist-colleague Amartya got the Nobel prize and he missed that. Now in the fast changing political scenario in the country, Bhagwati seems to be getting closure to Narendra Modi, vastly criticising Sonia Gandhi and result of the down-grading economy of India under Manmohan Singh 's stewardship.

                   .More over, Amarty's book co-authored with Dreze are nearer to the ideas that independent India had promises to the people, especially for the vast majority suffering from poverty, ill health and illiteracy ! And Amartya and his co-author believe the successive governments in India have lacked in this venture. Common men usually do not believe in the so "called gross domestic product (GDP)-they want measures for their welfare. Dreze is one of the best economist, born in Belgium and came to India in 1979 when he was 20. After ten years, he wrote with Sen a book -Hunger and Public Action and now he is Indian citizen. Sen, professor of Philosophy and Economics at Harvard, in my opinion, could be compared with one of the fathers of modern economics Adam Smith, who used to believe in moral economics ! They have written comprehensively about Indian economy and other South-East Asian countries. They have also written about fault-lines like "societal reach of economic progress" in India has been remarkably limited. India is lagging behind in social indicators. Reforms are there in India than to perform.. They have threadbare discussions on different aspects of Indian economy.. The book says as against 55 percent of Indian households that have no option but to resort to open defecation. India and Pakistan are bottom ladder in literacy rates. Amartya has quoted Rabindra Nath Tagore on his preaching on education. Sen and Derze have also referred Mahatma's talisman. Chapter-wise analysis in the book have thrown light on all aspects of India and its people as well as their economy. The book must be considered a best book , written recently. With highlighting of a vast matters on Indian economy and people of India, the decision makers in India must take lessons from the book and try to improve the economy by applying inclusive growth and identifying all sections of society , especially poor !

         These days , Bihar Model is also in news ! And the book of N K Singh', co-authored with  Lord Nicholas-The New Bihar-Rekindling Governance and Development, although I have not read the book , has also reportedly threw much light on  the much-publicised inclusive growth by CM Nitish Kumar .Two  edited books on globalising India, as referred above, have informed much about the globalisation, strongly influenced by the neoliberal ideology. The ideology of globalisation and liberalisation opposes an active role of the state in social and economic affairs, claiming that such intervention will negatively affect the economy of the country as a whole. In both the books much have been said about negative aspects like rise in poverty because of globalisation and neo-liberalisation of economy in India . Many essays and articles on Indian economy have their own perspectives including American Fed measures as well as scams after scams in stealing natural resources of the country, worth lakhs of crores of rupees in recent years , adversely affecting the economy of India.

         Whether these books or essays or articles could be path showing for bringing the Indian economy to sound footings ?-but ray of  hopes among common men is still there that situation for India's majority of poor will improve !